| Editorial from Labour Comment:—July 2004 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
June Eleven Elections Sinn Féin Doubles Vote: FIANNA FÁIL LOSES 80 SEATS |
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9/11 WAS TO BECOME A NIGHTMARE FOR GEORGE W. BUSH. IT SEEMS THAT 6/11 MIGHT HAVE THE MAKINGS OF ANOTHER NIGHTMARE FOR BERTIE AHERNE AND FIANNA FÁIL. |
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Fianna Fáil have lost 80 seats, 7% of their national vote: Its lowest ever vote in Local elections. On Dublin City Council the party lost 13% of its 1999 vote! For the first time in 70 years, they have lost control of Clare County Council, Eamon de Valera's old baliwick. They lost two Euro seats, their vote dropped from 38.6% to 29.5%.
The electoral success of Sinn Féin in working class areas and the emergence of class politics at a time when you might least expect it, a period of full employment and apparently widespread affluence, flummoxed the pundits. Sinn Féin more than doubled its votes and seats since 1999. Dublin city proved a rich harvest, up 10% and topping the poll in most areas north of the Liffey. Waterford provided a breakthrough for the party, as it took two seats in the city and one in the county. Sinn Féin got its First seat in Galway, First seat in Europe, and First Euro seat in the Six Counties, despite the most malicious efforts of the PDs and Sir Tony O'Reilly's Independent Media Group: the more these people ranted on, the more Sinn Féin support soared. The Labour Party is the largest party on Dublin City Council. The party marginally increased their national vote on the 1999 Local elections and their 2002 General Election performance but succeeded with an increase in seats. Fine Gael stopped the disastrous slide from 2002 General Election by just holding its support steady at 1999 levels. The
Green Party doubled their Local Government seats, even though this was
from a low base, their percentage vote increased from 2.5% to 4.0%.
Fianna Fáil's severest set backs were predominately in the Urban areas, the party vote held up at County Council level. In Cork, the party lost three seats and are now down to 16. Fine Gael have 24 and are one short of an overall majority. Clare, Mayo, Limerick, Galway and Westmeath saw Fianna Fáil predominance disappear.
The Chief Political Correspondent of The Irish Times bravely stated: "The Referendum may have been a factor" (sic).
The
present writer was strongly of the opinion that the 'Citizenship'
referendum spurred a substantial number of apathetic citizens to vote.
In the areas around Cork city, with large immigrant numbers, there was
a surprisingly steady turnout of voters. 1,841,335 voted in the European and 1,823,434 choosed to vote in the Referendum, i.e. 17,901 choosed to vote in the European Election but never bothered to exercise their entitlement in the 'Citizenship' Referendum. In the European poll, there was 60,567 Invalid or Spoiled votes and in the Referendum there was 20,219 Spoiled votes. In all, about 328,000 more people than in 1999 went to the polls. The ending of the dual mandate affected Fianna Fáil more than any other party, as they had more high profile deputies and senators—52 in total—elected to councils in 1999 who could not run on this occasion, but then again, this was a significent problem for Fine Gael and Labour too!
EUROPEAN ELECTION In Dublin, Mitchell (FG), Ryan (FF), De Rossa (Lab.) and McDonald (S.F.) were elected. In North-West (Ulster/Connacht): O Neachtain (FF), Harkin (Ind.) and Higgins (FG) were elected. In East (Leinster): McGuinness (FG); Aylward (FF) and Doyle (FG) were elected. In South (Munster): Crowley (FF); Coveney (FG) and Sinnott (Independent) were elected. In the Six-Counties: Allister (DUP); De Brun (SF) and Nicholson (UUP) were elected.
In 1979, Liam Kavanagh took a seat for Labour in the Leinster Euro constituency, he resigned in 1981, then Seamus Pattison replaced him, in 1984, Pattison resigned and Justin Keating took over—'mighty crack' indeed! In 1984, Keating Failed to hold the seat. In 1989, Michael Bell polled 49,766 and was defeated for the last seat by 125 votes. Bell ran again in 1994 but fared poorly. In 1999, he lost the Labour nomination to Sean Butler of Kilkenny who polled 38,112 first preferences—16,000 more than Bell received in 1994 but not good enough for election. Peter Cassells polled 59,158 and was really in contention for a seat, but to be denied by one of the 'Horsey' Beltons was really gut-wrenching. Meanwhile, poor Michael Bell was lying on a hospital trolly after losing his bid for the Drogheda East Co. Council seat in Louth. Good old bourgeois 'East' of Ireland constituency, the new 'Home Counties' of the Pale, they sure know their politics, from the Old Pale to the New Pale. They don't let their own down in the New Pale, Barbeques, Pajeros and wonderful RTE accents. In Munster, David Cullinane of Sinn Féin polled 32,643 first preferences compared to Labour's Senator Brendan Ryan on 20,086, Chris O'Leary of the Green Party received 10,896. The three Munster MEPs are all Cork-based. The umbrella group to which Fine Gael belong, the EPP, will be the largest in the new European Parliament. It will give the EPP a crucial role in deciding the next Commission President. However, with 269 out of 732 seats, it will be well short of a majority. The Socialists, which are represented in Ireland by the Labour Party, are set to be the second largest party, with around 200 seats. The UEN, the small right-wing party to which Fianna Fáil belong, fared badly, with just 26 seats. Where is the EU heading? Imagine attempting to place the last Governor General of Hong Kong in the post of EU President, and being supported by the Dublin Government. Then on Sunday 13.6.2004, after the abysmal turn-outs in the new entrant states, the success of the UK Independence Party, the hammering of Schroeder, Chirac and Berlusconi, the BBC Westminster Hour introduces Pat Cox, as the Irish Liberal leader and President of the European Parliament—what a charade, and how long more do we have to take it? Britain is in Europe, but it will never be part of Europe! Gerry Adams at the Dublin Euro Election Count mentioned about getting Britain out of Ireland, he should have gone further, get them out of Europe, as well, and the sooner, the better! Where would all this leave Dublin? When Britain goes—do we stay? There's one for McDowell! Wonder what Senator Mansergh would suggest?
It was the highest voter participation in a referendum since the Divorce ballot in 1995. Just over one per cent spoiled their vote, proportionately lower than in any vote since 1995. The Government-backed referendum on 'Citizenship' was carried by four to one. Yes: 79.17%; No: 20.3%. Results varied little across the country, with the vast majority of the 34 electoral areas producing Yes votes of between 77% and 82%. The highest was recorded in Longford where 84% were in favour and only Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown bucked the trend to any degree, turning in a Yes result of 71%. There was no significant urban-rural divide in voting patterns but there was a greater disparity in turnout, with voting in Dublin city and South Dublin as low as 53% compared with a high of 75% in Leitrim, and turnout lower in all five cities compared with the rest of the country. FIANNA FÁIL "The savaging experienced by Fianna Fáil on first preference count, a low of 31.7 per cent was the worst outcome since the general election of 1923, when the party notched up only 27.6 per cent, well behind Cumann na nGaedheal on just 39 per cent" (Southern Star, Skibbereen, 19.6.2004). Eamon O Cuiv was one of the only positive aspects of these elections for Fianna Fáil. He backed Sean O Neathtain, the party incumbent for Euro North-West from day one, saw off the 'suits' from party headquarters and steered O Neachtain and the grassroots to a famous victory over Minister Jim McDaid, one of Bertie's boys. Doctor McDaid Fáiled to even win a majority of votes in his native Donegal. McDaid's brother, Hugh, was also defeated in his first-time bid for a seat on Donegal County Council. O Cuiv's potential for leadership will be noted by the Fianna Fáil backbenchers, especially his ability to relate to Sinn Féin and the Republicans. Environment Minister, Martin Cullen, the ex-PD renegade was Fianna Fáil Director of the Local Elections. Minister for Sport, John O'Donoghue, was Director of the European Election for Fianna Fáil. The Fianna Fáil of today is no longer 'the Republican party', it is now 'the Corporate party'—that's the reality! It is still incredible that a leader with 81 seats, three votes short of an overall majority would go into government with the PD renegades who tried to split Fianna Fáil, this despite the fact that you had half a dozen Independent TDs with a good strong rural Fianna Fáil background. Fianna Fáil has slowly destroyed its old republican roots, it is starting to look more and more like the Redmondites in 1918. Royston Brady, the Dublin Fianna Fáil Euro candidate was singled out by the media, when it looked as if he was going to upstage one of the old Fianna Fáil elite. Listening to Eoin Ryan following his Euro win, the man sounds as if he would have a heart seizure had he to make a single serious political decision—pathetic he is! The Fianna Fáil collapse was worse than even the most pessimistic expected . . . . the real winners have been Sinn Féin. A big worry for Fianna Fáil must be that many of the Sinn Féin successes have been at their expense. It had been thought that it would be Labour who would suffer the most. Could it be Labour's turn to suffer in the General Election?
On Dublin City Council, Fianna Fáil lost 13% of its vote and on Limerick City Council, the party lost four seats and are now left with only two councillors. They also lost two County Council seats in Limerick, a county they once dominated. On the nine-seat Fermoy Town Council (Ned O'Keeffe country), there is not a single Fianna Fáil councillor. In 1999 they had three representatives.
Bruce Arnold writes that Fianna Fáil "remains a powerful, professional organisation". Its setbacks are not "the end of the political world. Shrewd minds will assess what this means and will set in place the electoral remedies" (Irish Independent, 14.6.2004). If the 'shrewd minds' of Fianna Fáil don't, we know who will—Sir Anthony O'Reilly! We got a taste of it in The Irish Independent's sister paper, the Evening Herald on June 18, 2004, a full front page picture and banner headlines reading:
You remember the daily paper whose editorial on the eve of the 1997 General Election told us that it was "Pay Back Time" for the Rainbow Government, then in 2003 told us "More Of The Same", more Fianna Fáil but especially more PDs—well, that was the Irish Independent, a paper that masquarades as Ireland's leading national daily. Only in Sligo did the Fianna Fáil vote increase, by 2% and they gained a seat! SINN FÉIN
In Dublin city, there are now just three wards where Sinn Féin does not hold a council seat. The party topped the poll in Artane, Ballyfermot, Cabra/Glasnevin, Donaghmede, Finglas and North Inner city. Lar O'Toole won over one and a half quotas in Artane but with no running mate to transfer to, Labour garnered his surplus to great effect. The party have become the largest party on Monaghan Co. Council. It now has 23 local reps compared to 20 for Fianna Fáil and 16 for Fine Gael. "Every second person you meet on the streets of Monaghan is a Sinn Féin voter", said poll topping SF Co. Councillor, Shane Conlon. A son of the Dail Ceann Comhairle, Dr. Rory O'Hanlon, lost his Monaghan seat, he had been tipped to succeed his Daddy in the Dail. An interesting aspect of Sinn Féin local government policy is the refusal of the party to enter political pacts which exclude any other party or elected members. "The arrival of Sinn Féin in Lifford has finally put an end to power-sharing : political exclusion is alive in Donegal", quipped a party spokesperson. On Donegal County Council, Sinn Féin are seeking an arrangement on the lines of the De Hondt principles in the Belfast Agreement, whereby no member or party is excluded. This is the arrangement obtaining in the Stormont Assembly, when it sits, and it appears Sinn Féin is unlikely to deviate from that stand. Sinn Féin are also pursuing a course that under local government legislation, a situation can arise where individual councillors can unite to create a technical group and thereby demand the right of representation on committees. The first meeting of the new Donegal County Council on June 25, 2004 was adjourned over this point, when Sinn Féin supported by Fine Gael, sought legal clarification. The
party gained their first seat on Cork County Council with a first preference
vote of 6.13%. The party trebled its representation on Cavan County Council. A gain of three seats was recorded in Wexford, with a 4.35% increase up to 9%. Labour has now just a single seat and lost 4.16% of their 1999 vote. In total, Sinn Féin have 54 City and County Council seats. "And that is where Sinn Féin comes in. They have tried to explain their electoral triumph in the South by silly claims like that of Gerry Adams who said that Irish people are 'instinctively Republican' or by suggestions that policies were the key to their success, despite the fact that many who voted for them at European and local level voted against them on a policy issue, the referendum on citizenship. Sinn Féin has been elected on the same grounds that Dick Spring was in the mid 1990s, the belief that he would change a society in which corruption among the rich appears to be fairly routine and largely unpunished. When one considers what happened to Dick Spring and the Labour party, is there any reason to believe that Gerry Adams will be more successful?" (Ciaran McCullagh is a Lecturer in Sociology in University College, Cork, Inside Cork, 17.6.2004). Sinn Féin is more than just a political party—it's a political movement. The party that shocked the political establishment in Dublin on June the Eleventh is not for going away. Neither media polls or editorials will much influence the direction of Sinn Féin. It has already worked out its course. The party has been born and steeled in battle. The men who took up the Armalite were serious, they never faltered—the ballot box is a smooth ride after the armed struggle. And it is an All Ireland party! Sinn Féin is compelling the Irish people to seek their inner selves, seek out our positives, we sometimes underestimate what we have and overestimate what we have not! Another little irony, if the Dublin government had been a little more incisive in its demand for fulfilment of the 1998 Belfast Agreement, especially the Stormont Assembly obligations, the 'devil' might not have found so many idle Republican hands or minds to concentrate on the lucrative political potential in the 26 Counties. THE LABOUR PARTY Pat Rabbitte will be happy with the Labour performance in the large urban areas but the party support is still very patchy nationally. While they haven't made any spectacular gains, Labour will be happy with their performance.
In
1979, Labour took four Euro seats. That proposition is highly exaggerated. In the end, Dick didn't even succeed in holding his own organisation together in his native Kerry.
Labour now has only two councillors on Kerry Co. Council: Pat Leahy, Listowel Electoral Area and Terry O'Brien in Tralee Electoral Area. Sinn Féin has two and total councillors are 27. Just in passing, on the Kerry Co. Council: "Fine Gael has already indicated that it would be willing to negotiate a pact with Sinn Féin and that could result in a Rainbow coalition involving Fine Gael, Labour, Sinn Féin and two others" (The Kingdom, 15.6.2004). The great name of Spring no longer appears in the political administration of County Kerry! Labour achieved its best ever result in Dublin City—winning 14 seats to become the largest party. Michael Conaghan, a former DSP candidate in the days of Jimmy Kemmy, was elected Labour Lord Mayor of Dublin. The party will be pleased with its three extra Councillors in Carlow/Kilkenny, but disappointed with its Fáilure to win any Co. Council seat in Meath, where Sinn Féin won two and the Green Party one. The narrow Fáilure of Peter Cassells to break through in Europe should ensure that the party pulls all stops out in time for the General Election in his native Meath constituency. In Mayo, the printer, Johnny Mee held on to the seat he earlier seemed to have lost to Independent candidate, Mr. Michael Kilcoyne, who is Chairman of the Consumers' Association of Ireland and Secretary of Galway No. One branch of SIPTU, he recently resigned from the Labour party. Labour's sole success on Limerick County Council was the election of Deirdre Ni Chinneide in the Bruff electoral area, bordering on the city. In Limerick city, the party win four seats, a gain of one seat after the disaster of 1999, when they lost Jim Kemmy's seat plus his running mate, to the former Limerick criminal, the late Michael Kelly, who topped the poll in Kemmy's Ward Three. Michael Kelly died on the day of the count, Sunday, June 13, 2004. Despite this gain of a seat, the Labour vote was down 4.12% on 1999, at 14%. In 1999, it was 18.1% and in 1991, 22.9%, at the height of the Jim Kemmy era. On Cork County Council, Labour gained a seat taking their tally to five. They received 10% of the first preference vote. In Sligo, the party exceeded the 10% mark and took three County Council seats. They took two on Sligo Town Council with Declan Bree elected the new Mayor. In Galway city, Labour took four seats becoming the largest party in the city. Catherine Connolly became the first Labour Mayor since Michael D. Higgins. In Westmeath County Council, the party took a resounding 25% of the vote and won six seats. Miriam McGillycuddy, the estranged wife of child pornagraphic case Judge, Brian Curtin was re-elected to Tralee's Urban District Council for Labour. Labour expected to take 100 local authority seats in this election and achieved its goal, reaching 101.
FINE GAEL "Realistically, however, Fine Gael cannot indulge in too much self-congratulation as Fianna Fáil were on 'self-destruct' with their draconian policies of a window dressing overkill and every party, including Fine Gael was bound to benefit from the inevitable protest vote" (Southern Star, 19.6.2004). Fine Gael gained 14 Local Government seats, whilst their percentage vote dropped fractionally from 1999. Their most impressive performance was in the Euro Election, where five seats were won. They now have MEPs in all four Euro constituencies. Their single success story was in the Euro East constituency were they took a stunning two seats. It looks as if the ranchers are back in support. A feature here was the outright partisan media support for Mairead McGuinness (FG) who was the Editor of the weekly Irish Independent agricultural supplement and featured as a host on RTE programmes. Fine Gael couldn't believe their luck when Tom Parlon, the PD TD and former IFA leader, didn't stand. "…Fine Gael are the biggest winners in the elections, much bigger winners than Sinn Féin… Fianna Fáil's sharp fall and Fine Gael's soaring rise…" (James Downey, Irish Independent, 14.6.2004). The Irish Independent called it "Fine Gael's sparkling victory" (14.6.2004). Let's get sober here, Fine Gael stanched its electoral haemorrhage, from its General election outing in 2002. In the last Local Elections, 1999, the party received 28.0%, on this occasion, it was less: 27.4% but through the vagaries of Proportional Representation, they increased their seats from 277 to 290. THE GREEN PARTY The Green Party won 4% of the vote, up from 2.5% in the 1999 Local elections, hence a doubling of its local authority seats, though it had hoped to treble its seats. It lost its two Euro MPs and also lost both its Dublin City councillors. It gained its first local government seat in Donegal, Letterkenny Town Council, when Neil Clarke, dramatically and historically 'defeated' Jimmy Kavanagh of Fine Gael.
Two more rechecks took place but at teatime on Monday, Neil Clarke was elected to the ninth and final seat giving Letterkenny and Donegal its first ever Green Party councillor. The party took four seats in Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown with 10.2% first preferences and three seats in Fingal with 8.2%. New seats were gained in Clare, Kilkenny. The party Fáiled to increase its representation on Cork City council, despite having a TD in the city's South Central constituency. THE SOCIALIST PARTY Clare Daly, who was jailed during the bin tax protests, topped the poll for the Socialist Party in the Fingal County Council elections. Another Socialist Party Councillor, Ruth Coppinger, held her seat after polling 2,000 first preferences in Mulhuddart. Mick Barry, topped the poll in Cork North-Central to give the Socialist Party their first seat outside Dublin, an outstanding performance. The party leader, Joe Higgins polled 23,218 in the Dublin Euro seat, another great effort! THE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS Whilst the PD vote rose by one per cent on its 1999 Local election performance to 3.8%, similar to its 2002 General Election, they had little to celebrate. They dropped from 25 Local government seats in 1999 to 18 on June 11. In Co. Cork, the party polled 1.3%. In 1991, they had 5.5%. Senator Minahane lost his Cork City Council seat. The party now has only one seat in Cork City, this is held by former PD TD, Maureen Quill. At one stage the party had two TDs in Cork. The party of total political correctness couldn't even secure a single candidate for Europe: their chief barker, Barrister McDowell would not risk his reputation in the Dublin seat. His Dublin S.E. constituency produced only a single PD on Dublin City Council. They won 28% of the vote in Galway city and took three seats, though the Labour Party took a record four. Tom Parlon ran eight PDs in his native Laois and nine in Offaly. He garnered 14% himself in the General Election in this constituency in 2002, but this time the PD vote dropped to 10% in Laois and 7% in Offaly winning three Co. Council seats in all. A 'sixth sense' must have warned Parlon not to go for the farm vote as a European PD candidate in Leinster. The party won 20 council seats, in 1995 they won 25. Despite having a Dail Deputy and Junior Minister, Tim O'Malley, the PDs Fáiled to win a single seat on Limerick City Council, home of their founder and leader, Des O'Malley. However, in the County they took three County Council seats. At one stage they did have a TD in the county, Peader Clohessy.
WATERFORD Waterford City and County proved to be Fianna Fáil's 'Waterloo' after they were left with just a single City Council seat and lost four of their Co. Council seats. Sinn Féin was a big winner in Waterford, they won two City seats and Brendan Mansfield took a seat in the County and a seat on Dungarvan Town Council, the first occasion for Sinn Féin since Pax Whelan in the 1920s. Mansfield's late grandfather, Mick Mansfield was a renowned figure in the War of Independence. The
Workers' Party which always retained a strong presence in the city were
reduced from three seats to two on Waterford City Council. A notable point in the Dungarvan Town Council area: the Labour vote was down by 11% on five years ago, and Mansfield took 9% of the vote for Sinn Féin. On Waterford Co. Council, Labour advanced from three to four seats for the first time. Ward One in the city produced one of the big upsets when Fianna Fáil's Sean Downer, an adviser to Environmental Minister and Fianna Director of the Local Election campaign, Martin Cullen, lost his seat to Joe Kelly of Sinn Féin. In Ward Two, former PD mayor, Oliver Clery, crashed out at the end of the second count. In the city where Martin Cullen served as a P.D. TD, the P.D.s have not a single public representative and none in the County Waterford, either! "…they've now been rendered a non-entity as a party" (Waterford News & Star, 18.6.2004). LIMERICK The Fianna Fáil Mayor of Limerick, Dick Sadlier, Fáiled to get elected. The party's vote in the city dropped from 28% in the last Local Elections to just 12% this time around. Out of 17 seats, Fianna Fáil have only two Councillors in Limerick City. Sinn Féin's only candidate Fáiled to get elected. Republican Sinn Féin fielded two runners and though not elected, they polled a respectable vote, both exceeding the vote of the Sinn Féin candidate in Limerick No. Two Ward. DONEGAL "Imagine, if you will, Sinn Féin now holding eight council seats in the county : four on the County Council and four more on town councils in Buncrana; Ballyshannon and Letterkenny. Without putting a tooth in it, this is some big achievement" (Tirconaill Tribune, 18.6.2004). The Sinn Féin Euro candidate, Pearse Doherty polled a stunning 65,000 first preference votes in the North-West Euro constituency, 13,000 ahead of Fianna Fáil junior minister, James McDaid, TD, who must be a relieved man that Doherty is domiciled in S.W. Donegal and not in Doctor McDaid's N.E. constituency. Paddy 'The Cope' Gallagher, TD came back from Brussels to dethrone Independent T.D. Tommy Gildea in 2002—who can Fianna Fáil bring back to stop Sinn Féin's onward march for a Dail seat in South West Donegal? Independent Fianna Fáil, founded by the late Neil T. Blaney, suffered the loss of two seats on Donegal County Council along with the loss of a town council seat in Ballyshannon. "I.F.F. faced a real tough struggle for survivial and it would not surprise me at all if going back to Fianna Fáil is now an option that is far more attractive than six months ago" (Tirconaill Tribune, 18.6.2004). Labour fared badly in Donegal, obtaining 135 votes of a quota of 2,051 in Letterkenny Co. Council area. In the town election, they polled 70 votes, the Socialist Party polled 65—the Green Party took a seat with 276. In the Glenties Co. Council area, trade unionist, Seamus Rogers polled 682 for Labour and was eliminated on the eighth count. He was a former Democratic Left councillor. 'MEALY-MOUTH' AHERN And how have New Fianna Fáil responded to their electoral crisis? They have panicked even further! If ever an individual sums up the double-speak of Fianna Fáil, its the Louth TD, Communications Minister, Dermot Ahern, who in civil life happens to be a solicitor. On May 31, 2004, a fortnight before the elections, he was lecturing the people about economic rationalism and the benefits of globalisation—no PD politician could put it as stark.
But a fortnight later, after a massive electoral drubbing, the mini-'Friedman' adopts the mantle of Frederic Ozanam.
However, the President of the PDs and Justice Minister, Michael McDowell—
But Mr. Ahern retorted:
So already Sinn Féin have compelled Fianna Fáil to adopt the "Third Way"?
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